DM: Re:

[Ashraf Azmy]

Why don't you use a rule induction system like SuperQuery
http://www.azmy.com to understand the patterns governing your data.  
This
will help you build a better NN system.

Ashraf
AZMY Thinkware, Inc.
http://www.azmy.com



-----Original Message-----
From: Hallberg Rassy <hr38@hotmail.com>
To: datamine-l@nautilus-sys.com <datamine-l@nautilus-sys.com>
Date: Thursday, April 09, 1998 6:52 AM


>Dear Friend
>
>I have now a problem and would like to share with you and to 
>receive, if
>possible your opinion.
>Hereinafter the picture of situation:
>1.I'm presently involved in a customer profiling project for a large
>mobile operator.
>2.The goal is to set up a system able to anticipate the likelyhood of
>churn of  customers
>3.As a pilot step I extracted call records for 10000 active customers
>plus 4000  churned
>4.Using SPSS neural connection I made up a neural network based on a 
>set
>of 4000  active+4000 churned
>5.The data was: calling patterns of july, agoust and september the
>target was:  churn/no churn situation in december
>6.The results was promising: 90% of real churn anticipated, with a
>cut-off  probability of 80%
>7.The same network was used on october, nov, dec. data to anticipate
>march churn  the results dropped to a terrific 11% with the same 
>cut-off
>of 80%: totally  useless
>
>
>I have formulated some hypotheses
>A.The low time span (three month) is affected by seasonality
>B.The data used are not sufficient to build a reliable network
>C.The tool (SPSS Neural Connection) is not reliable
>
>Could you give your opinion?
>Many thanks in advance
>
>
>
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